Forecasting where there is almost no structure
Forecasting where there is almost no structure Most financial time series are noise. No trend. No seasonality. Weak repeatability. The best baseline is a random walk. Any discovered pattern disappears as soon as it becomes part of the market. What still works Structure is scarce — but signal can be layered. Statistics captures basic forms. ML captures weak dependencies. AI captures hidden links in text and context. Crowd forecasting captures human information. ...