Forecast

Market question: Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? Position: No. Opened on 2025-11-21 — see Polymarket market link above.

Market question: Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in November? Position: Yes. Opened on 2025-11-20 — see Polymarket market link above.

Market question: Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November? Summary: November 2025 trades in a ~100k regime with typical ±4–9k swings; a 90k touch would require an event‑driven move beyond 2σ and below the monthly low. See the detailed reasoning in the blog post: My first Polymarket forecast: will BTC drop to $90,000 in November?. Post‑mortem: Outcome Yes (touched $90k). Position No lost. Brier = 0.4225 (pYes=0.35 vs outcome 1).

Update (2025-11-20): Outcome Yes (touched $90k). My position No lost. See post‑mortem: /posts/why-my-first-forecast-was-wrong/. This is my first public forecast and my first stake on Polymarket. Market question: “Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November?” I bought No at ~65%. Below is how I arrived at the estimate. 1. History of BTC in November I compiled stats across all Novembers. Key figures: November average: ≈ $34k standard deviation: ≈ $32k minimum: ≈ $3.8k maximum: ≈ $110.5k Conclusion: November is one of the most volatile months for BTC. But the structure of volatility depends on the cycle. ...