Why my first forecast was wrong
My first forecast was simple: BTC would not drop below $90,000 in November. The bet looked reasonable from the data. But it lost. Here’s why. 1) I overestimated regime stability The month’s range looked stable: ~95–110k. Std was low; swings looked “orderly.” Mistake: I treated a local structure as durable. Regimes can switch faster than the data reveals. 2) I underestimated out‑of‑range probability The drop happened without a single clear trigger. That’s normal: price can break the distribution on order‑flow or liquidity alone. ...