My first forecast was simple:
BTC would not drop below $90,000 in November.

The bet looked reasonable from the data.
But it lost.
Here’s why.

1) I overestimated regime stability

The month’s range looked stable: ~95–110k.
Std was low; swings looked “orderly.”

Mistake: I treated a local structure as durable.
Regimes can switch faster than the data reveals.

2) I underestimated out‑of‑range probability

The drop happened without a single clear trigger.
That’s normal: price can break the distribution on order‑flow or liquidity alone.

Mistake: I underweighted rare, tail moves.

3) I relied on data that were too “clean”

The range was narrow but described only a slice of the month.
Such structures are often temporary.

Mistake: insufficient attention to distribution tails.

4) I overused historical analogy

“November’s floor rises each cycle” sounded plausible.
But the market doesn’t owe us repeats.

Mistake: reading history as structure.

5) The range was fine. The probability wasn’t

The 95–112k corridor was realistic.
I just attached too much confidence to it.

Mistake: overconfidence under uncertainty.

Takeaways

A forecast is a hypothesis.
Error is part of the data.

  1. regimes change faster than models;
  2. tails matter more than the center;
  3. analogies are not structure;
  4. confidence should be lower;
  5. updating is essential.

I updated my estimate.
And I continue.

— S. Praevis