I’m starting to study forecasting to think more precisely.
Most forecasts are confident words without probabilities.
I care less about asserting and more about testing.
Here I will log the learning process:
how my estimates change,
what turns out to be noise,
and how the model is corrected.
First steps are simple: observe, assign probabilities,
remove unnecessary assumptions.
The model will change — and that’s part of the process.
This blog is not about being right.
It’s about honesty under uncertainty.
— S. Praevis