Forecasting levels is easier.
Forecasting extremes is almost always harder.
Highs and lows are properties of the path, not just the close.
Price must actually reach the level, not merely close beyond it.
Most models break on that distinction.
1) The data behave like noise
Bitcoin is non‑stationary.
Volatility shifts.
Tails are fat.
Jumps are normal.
Terminal models compress everything to one number.
Extremes require reasoning about the entire path.
2) What works in practice
Statistics — baseline estimates.
ML — weak dependencies.
AI — signals in news and context.
EVT — the tails.
Monte Carlo — path checks.
Options market — collective expectations.
Each method contributes a slice.
Together — they form a probabilistic frame:
not a level forecast, but the chance of reaching it.
3) The main idea
Extremes are a game of tails, volatility, and paths.
To assess them honestly, combine models, data, and market information.
The signal will be small.
But for now — this is the best I’ve found.
— S. Praevis