Polymarket is a prediction market.
The stakes here are not about gambling, but about probabilities.
Each market is a question about the future:
elections, the economy, technology, sports, or world events.
The price of a contract reflects the crowd’s probability estimate of the outcome.
If a contract trades at 0.23, the market implies about a 23% chance the event will occur.
The core idea is simple:
when people put money on the line, they pay closer attention to information.
That’s why these markets often react faster than analysts and media.
Why does this matter to me?
Because Polymarket is where forecasting theory meets reality.
You must state an estimate, back it with a stake,
and test your honesty when the future arrives.
It’s not a way to predict everything.
It’s a way to think more precisely.
— S. Praevis