Why I’m starting to study forecasting
I’m starting to study forecasting to think more precisely. Most forecasts are confident words without probabilities. I care less about asserting and more about testing. Here I will log the learning process: how my estimates change, what turns out to be noise, and how the model is corrected. First steps are simple: observe, assign probabilities, remove unnecessary assumptions. The model will change — and that’s part of the process. This blog is not about being right. It’s about honesty under uncertainty. ...