Update (2025-11-20): Outcome Yes (touched $90k). My position No lost. See post‑mortem: /posts/why-my-first-forecast-was-wrong/.

This is my first public forecast and my first stake on Polymarket.
Market question: “Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November?”
I bought No at ~65%.

Below is how I arrived at the estimate.

1. History of BTC in November

I compiled stats across all Novembers.
Key figures:

  • November average: ≈ $34k
  • standard deviation: ≈ $32k
  • minimum: ≈ $3.8k
  • maximum: ≈ $110.5k

Conclusion: November is one of the most volatile months for BTC.
But the structure of volatility depends on the cycle.

2. Cycle dynamics (2017–2021)

  • 2018: strong capitulation after the 2017 peak
  • 2020–2021: recovery and a new high
  • November 2021: all values in the month > $53k
  • the November “floor” and “ceiling” rise together with the cycle

3. What November 2025 shows

In 2025 data:

  • November mean: ≈ $103k
  • std: ≈ $4.4k
  • min: $94.6k
  • max: $110.5k

This is a new regime.
The November 2025 minimum is already above the November maximum of the previous cycle.

The market has effectively moved into the ~100k range, where ±4–9k swings fit the month’s usual structure.

4. Range forecast

Based on the mean (103k) and 2σ (±8.7k):

Expected corridor of the final November close:
$95,000 – $112,000
Center: ~103k.

For BTC to reach $90,000, the market would need to:

  • break 2σ down,
  • set a new monthly low,
  • exit the current price regime.

That’s an event‑driven risk, not a statistical scenario.

5. My position

I took No at 65% probability.
Reasons:

  • the month’s current structure is above 95k
  • historical patterns support a higher floor
  • volatility is sufficient, but not to 90k without an external shock
  • 90k sits in the lower 3σ zone (unlikely without event triggers)

Final phrasing:

Probability BTC does NOT touch $90,000 in November: ~70–75%.

6. What I want to validate

This is the first test of my methodology:

  • data → structure → ranges → probability → stake
  • subsequent calibration on the realized outcome
  • compute Brier score

This process is the backbone of my forecasting approach.