Market question: Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November?

Summary: November 2025 trades in a ~100k regime with typical ±4–9k swings; a 90k touch would require an event‑driven move beyond 2σ and below the monthly low.

See the detailed reasoning in the blog post: My first Polymarket forecast: will BTC drop to $90,000 in November?.

Post‑mortem: Outcome Yes (touched $90k). Position No lost. Brier = 0.4225 (pYes=0.35 vs outcome 1).